Sitting here writing this, August 2023, note to self, what will this article read like in the 3, 6, 12, 24, 36 months time?
- ChatGPT and similar language type models when used in business
- Microsoft and AI tools associated with openai (chatgpt)
- Barriers and opportunities with AI for smaller business.
- Roles and changes as a result of new AI tools.
- other
This is a long form discussion, we'll explore these topics in more detail in future Insights.
Without a doubt ChatGPT and similar tools have captured the imagination over the past 10 months or so. We are coming across people who have never heard of it let alone tried it out. I'll limit this to ChatGPT because its what I've used the most. Starting at version 3 and now having used the various updates to where it is today, I've seen Chatgpt evolve and change.
When I first started using ChatGPT it was like this young gun, raw, powerful, fast and somewhat arrogant sob and then it turned into what I called a pumped up, long winding mansplaining windbag to where it is right now. Over the months I've tried to break it, talk to it and test it. It's been a pleasure to observe the journey, which has been phenomenal in terms of it's capacity to improve. It's great for quickly generating a bunch of ideas, a quick letter or note and in some respects it's assisted me in taking a softer approach to my communication. Right now, I think we're friends again.
Early in the year, I said to someone, invest in Microsoft, their shares are going to go up, from around $230USD at the time. Within a few short months they had nearly doubled. I made this prediction because of Microsoft's investment in Openai (chatGPT) and what Microsoft was doing in terms of implementing these tools in all the Office365 suite of products. It wasn't because they were going to make more money off subscriptions, which they are doing. I predicted the surge in value because of what Microsoft tools can do for a business, things that were really hard to do before things like chatGPT and Copilot made the tools and skills accessible to so many more people.
Without going into all the detail, the rationale was simple; I know some small businesses circa 100 people, paying upward of $1mil in various software to help them run their business. With the new O365 tools, this cost could come down to $60k for the year. I won't go into the labor aspects between the two, suffice to say the cost benefits model out to be similar. All of a sudden there are really compelling reasons to get off nearly all other software and get into the O365 suite. Time will tell where this will head, I'm already hearing people say there is still a place in the market for companies like Slack and so on.
Those cost savings and the ChatGPT style tools available are enabling people and business to get from A to B so much quicker. I've had first hand experience with a prototype we were trying to design and communicate; pre and post ChatGPT. One took 4 months, the other was completed to a higher degree in 4 hours at a fraction of the cost. The team working on the prototype went from 3 to 1 and down to 4 hours.
What we see here are amazing tools, the big question is how will this impact the labor force, disruption and the way of the blacksmith scenarios and a whole new range of roles and tools to assist people get thing done faster. Opportunities abound for people who can move fast with this. Right now there are people putting their head in the sand, yet making generalizations is always problematic, especially when it comes to specific industries or roles. Two example come to mind.
Marketing - at first I couldn't help but think SEO and to some extent Google are in the firing line. When you think about it, ChatGPT currently doesn't help me find the best pizza in my local area but it does shortcut me having to read through a load of links and content which is barely relevant. I spoke to a marketer who didn't see a problem and for really good reason, it was still about being there at the right time and place when a consumer needs and wants you the most.
Accounting - accounting and similar industries are undergoing huge amounts of change because of technology, including AI. Forget the argument as to whether they will be replaced, they probably will for what its worth, but even if they are not, what I'm seeing is that if they sold 100 hours 20 years ago, they sold 30 hours 10 years ago and lately I'm seeing they sell 10 hours. What does this mean? Well on the same sort of client through time, what they sell ie time, they are selling less and less of. Not only selling less but selling it for less. Arguably they won't go the way of the Dodo, but they will certainly be competing for an ever smaller piece of an ever smaller pie.
Disruption and change is coming, I guess the biggest question on a lot of peoples mind about AI is it's role in the future of humanity. Some months ago there was a Google employee fired for claiming Google's AI was sentient. I read the transcript which this person interpreted a certain way and made the claims and I couldn't help but have an existential moment. Not because I though the AI was sentient, yes, I thought this Google employee should have been fired for the misapprehension but it got me thinking and I started to question how sentient I actually am as a human. Where is AI heading? AI is taking all our content and bias and as a language tool it may actually help humanity be nicer to each other. It may take the view that humanity is merely a pebble in a shoe, would AI miss humanity if the pebble was removed and gone? Or will Elon Musk's Neural link mean we all become cyborgs, Terminator ringing true.
What other crystal ball gazing scenarios are going to occur over the coming months and years. I'm looking forward to finding out.